MLB Off-Season Blog

The MLB offseason has exploded over the past few weeks with blockbuster signings, major trades, and qualifying offer decisions that will reshape the 2026 landscape. Here's everything you need to know about the moves that matter.

Dylan Cease Signs $210M Deal with Blue Jays

The biggest pitching domino has fallen. Dylan Cease is heading to Toronto on a massive $210 million contract, giving the Blue Jays the ace they've been desperately seeking. Cease has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, eclipsing 200 strikeouts and making at least 32 starts in each of the past five seasons.

Key Trades Reshaping Rosters

Taylor Ward to Baltimore: The Orioles acquired outfielder Taylor Ward from the Angels in exchange for pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez. This is a win-now move for Baltimore, adding a proven bat to their already potent lineup.

Sonny Gray to Boston: The Red Sox landed veteran starter Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, with St. Louis covering $20 million of the $41 million remaining on his deal. Gray gives Boston a veteran presence and innings-eater as they rebuild their rotation.

Mauricio Dubon to Atlanta: The Braves picked up utility man Mauricio Dubon from Houston for Nick Allen—a depth move that gives Atlanta more flexibility on the infield.

Major Free Agent Signings

• Josh Naylor → Seattle Mariners (5 years, $92.5M with full no-trade clause)
• Raisel Iglesias → Atlanta Braves (1 year, $16M) - returns as closer
• Devin Williams → New York Mets - elite reliever joins bullpen
• Ryan Helsley → Baltimore Orioles - former Cardinals closer heads east

Qualifying Offer Decisions

Four notable players accepted their $22.025 million qualifying offers, returning to their 2025 clubs:

• Trent Grisham (Yankees) - outfield depth locked in
• Gleyber Torres (Tigers) - continues Detroit rebuild
• Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) - ace stays in Milwaukee
• Shota Imanaga (Cubs) - electric lefty returns to Chicago

Still on the Market: The Big Names

Several marquee free agents remain unsigned as we head into December:

• Kyle Tucker - Elite outfielder with 30+ HR power
• Alex Bregman - Two-time World Series champion third baseman
• Pete Alonso - Power-hitting first baseman
• Kyle Schwarber - Lefty slugger with postseason pedigree
• Cody Bellinger - Former MVP looking for long-term deal

Nolan Arenado Blocks Houston Trade

Interesting development: Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to block a potential move to Houston. His reasoning? He didn't want a decision made on his future this early in the offseason. The Cardinals third baseman remains in limbo as trade discussions continue.

Betting Implications

With these moves in mind, here's how we're adjusting our outlook:

• Blue Jays: Cease signing makes them a serious AL East threat. Target OVER on their win total.
• Orioles: Ward + Helsley = balanced improvement. Watch for value in division odds.
• Mariners: Naylor gives them the run producer they've lacked. AL West gets more interesting.
• Red Sox: Gray helps, but more moves needed. Wait and see before betting futures.

Stay tuned as we continue tracking every major move throughout the offseason. The Winter Meetings are just around the corner, and more blockbusters are coming.

The MLB off-season has officially kicked into high gear, and all eyes are on Juan Soto. The 27-year-old superstar is expected to command the largest contract in baseball history, and the bidding war is heating up between the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and Dodgers.

Current Market Assessment

Industry insiders are projecting a deal in the range of $550-600 million over 12-13 years. That would eclipse Shohei Ohtani's record-breaking contract and fundamentally alter the competitive landscape for the next decade.

The Contenders

New York Yankees: After losing Aaron Judge to injury concerns late last season, the Yankees are desperate to add an elite left-handed bat. Ownership has indicated they're willing to go all-in, and pairing Soto with Judge would create the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball.

New York Mets: Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets in baseball, and he's not afraid to use them. The Mets need a marquee signing after a disappointing 2025 campaign. Landing Soto would send a massive statement and instantly make them World Series contenders.

Toronto Blue Jays: The surprise dark horse. Toronto has been aggressive in their pursuit and reportedly offered a 13-year, $575 million package. They're selling Soto on being the face of baseball in Canada and building around him for the next decade.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Never count out the Dodgers. They've proven they can structure creative deals (see: Ohtani's deferred money), and adding Soto to a lineup with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman would be absolutely unfair.

What This Means for Betting Markets

Whichever team lands Soto will see an immediate shift in their World Series odds. Expect futures markets to move dramatically when this deal gets done. We're projecting:

• Yankees: +650 → +450 if they land Soto
• Mets: +1400 → +750 with Soto aboard
• Blue Jays: +2200 → +900 if they pull off the stunner
• Dodgers: +350 → +225 (would become prohibitive favorites)

Bottom Line: This is the domino that will set off a chain reaction across the entire league. Smart bettors are waiting for this deal to finalize before locking in any long-term futures. The ripple effects will impact division races, playoff odds, and team win totals across both leagues.

While position players always dominate the headlines, championship teams are built on quality starting pitching. This off-season features one of the deepest pitching markets in recent memory, with several aces and quality mid-rotation arms hitting free agency.

The Top Tier

Blake Snell (31 years old): The two-time Cy Young winner is looking for one more massive payday. Despite his age, Snell remains dominant when healthy, posting a 2.82 ERA with 234 strikeouts last season. Expected contract: 5 years, $175-190 million.

Potential Landing Spots: Giants (reunion?), Cubs (need ace badly), Red Sox (retooling rotation), Orioles (ready to contend).

Corbin Burnes (30 years old): The most complete pitcher on the market. Burnes combines elite strikeout ability with excellent control and durability. He's made 32+ starts in each of the last four seasons. Expected contract: 6 years, $210-230 million.

Potential Landing Spots: Dodgers (always in on top arms), Mets (if they miss on Soto), Phillies (pushing all chips in), Rangers (defending champs reloading).

High-Upside Mid-Rotation Arms

Jack Flaherty (29): Resurgent season with the Tigers. If he can stay healthy, he's a solid #2 starter. Expected: 3 years, $60-75 million.

Sean Manaea (33): Veteran lefty who knows how to pitch. Won't wow you with velocity, but consistently gives quality starts. Expected: 2 years, $35-45 million.

Michael Lorenzen (33): Versatile arm who can start or pitch out of the bullpen. Perfect depth piece for contending teams. Expected: 2 years, $22-28 million.

Impact on Team Win Totals

When betting win totals this spring, pay close attention to which teams upgrade their rotations. Historical data shows:

• Teams adding a true ace (sub-3.00 ERA) improve by an average of 7.2 wins
• Teams adding two quality starters improve by an average of 9.5 wins
• Rotation depth matters: Teams with 5+ quality options win 8+ more games than teams relying on spot starters

Teams to Watch: Baltimore (young offense needs pitching help), Chicago Cubs (rotation is a mess), Texas Rangers (need to keep window open), and Boston Red Sox (starting from scratch on rotation).

Everyone focuses on the big-name signings, but savvy front offices know that championship teams are built from the back end of the bullpen forward. Let's examine some under-the-radar relief pitcher signings that could have massive impacts on the 2026 season.

The High-Leverage Arms Market

This year's relief market is loaded with proven late-inning options. Teams that were one or two bullpen pieces away from contention should be aggressive.

Josh Hader (31): Elite closer with multiple All-Star appearances. Posted a 1.28 ERA with 33 saves last season. Expected: 4 years, $70-80 million. Landing spots: Phillies, Braves, Dodgers.

Jordan Romano (31): Quietly one of the best closers in baseball. 36 saves with a 2.54 ERA. Expected: 3 years, $42-50 million. Landing spots: Cubs, Mariners, Rangers.

Value Plays: Setup Men Who Can Close

Smart teams don't overpay for "closers" anymore. They find power arms that can pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings and save money.

Robert Stephenson (31): Mid-90s fastball with devastating slider. Can get you strikeouts in any leverage situation. Expected: 2 years, $18-22 million.

Daniel Hudson (37): Veteran presence who's been there before. Perfect depth piece. Expected: 1 year, $8-10 million.

The Analytics Revolution in Relief Pitching

Front offices are increasingly using data to identify undervalued relievers. Key metrics they're targeting:

• Swing-and-Miss Rate: Pitchers with 30%+ whiff rates are dominant in high-leverage spots
• Hard Contact Rate: Limiting barrels is crucial in late innings when one mistake ends the game
• Split Differential: Pitchers who can neutralize both lefties and righties provide maximum flexibility

Betting Angle: When spring training starts, identify which teams have significantly upgraded their bullpens and target their Run Line bets in close games. Teams with elite relief corps consistently cover 1.5-run spreads at a higher rate than the betting markets account for.